Thursday, August 18, 2016

Blame China for our current slowdown

One reason I am negative about the world is that much of the growth in recent years was driven by rapid expansion in China. The Chinese growth will slow down. Indian economy can easily grow, maybe not at 7 per cent per annum, but at 4-6 per cent per annum. Some people say it is very pessimistic. But if you compare 4 per cent growth to 0 per cent growth in Europe and 1 per cent growth in the US, it is actually a very good economic performance. Since early 2016 many emerging markets have grossly outperformed the US.

The valuations in emerging economies are much more attractive than in the US. If you take a horizon of 10 years, you will make more money in emerging economies than in the US. The same would apply to India. The problem in emerging economies including India is that quality companies are very expensive. But in India and other emerging economies there are also lots of companies that have a reasonable valuation. Provided the world doesn't collapse and holds together, emerging economies will do okay.