Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Credit growth in Asia exploding

Over the last Five years, everywhere in Asia, the household debt as a percentage of the economy has exploded higher, in other words a lot of growth was driven by unsustainable credit growth. 

The household debt levels are relatively high, the asset prices are high, the affordability of buying homes has diminished and many countries have had currency weaknesses and their currency account surplus has turned to deficits. Some countries like India, Indonesia had to push up interest rates to support their currencies. 

I'm not overly negative in the Asian regions but if a bubble bursts in China it would have a devastating impact on the surrounding countries.