Marc Faber Blog

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Economic power shifting from Western countries to Asia

Well, basically, everything is connected and interrelated. We had a colonial system until the end of the Second World War, followed by the rise of individual countries. And over the last twenty-five to thirty years what we had as the rise of China with 1.3 billion people. Because of China’s rapid growth and resource dependence (iron ore, copper from Australia, Brazil and Africa, and oil principally from the Middle East), the Chinese have obviously become a very important economic force.
Sky scrapers dot the cities across China and Hong Kong

Take Africa twelve years ago: trade between Africa and the US was twice the size of trade between Africa and China. But today, the situation is reversed. As a result, China has gained large geopolitical influence due to its growing economic relations. This helped shift alliances from the US to the East, which has led to tensions. China has many provinces that are larger than a European country and as an economic block, China is huge! It dwarfs everything else in Asia. But now China is surrounded by military bases in Asia, by American aircraft carriers and by the signed defense treaties between the US and Japan.

Moreover, the Chinese never forgot that Japan had attacked them numerous times over the past 200 years. Additional disputes between China and its surrounding countries, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and especially Japan about maritime rights will cause further tension in the region. Despite these tensions, the power shift is still underway. 

You have a superpower like the one Britain was until the First World War and you have a rising power like Germany whose economy in 1910 overtook that of the British. Here you have the superpower that believes in the old order and the new power that believes it should have more influence on global affairs. The
resulting tensions create an environment that is favorable for confrontation. But it doesn’t have to come to war. In my view, China’s long-term objective is to kick out the US from their military bases, particularly after Hillary Clinton and Mr. Obama announced the American Pivot to Asia two years ago; it was a kind of direct attack or confrontational behavior towards China.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Financial Crisis will return

There will again be a financial crisis because if you look at the cause of the last financial crisis, it was overly expansionary monetary policies that led to excessive credit growth and the very high leverage in the system was most noted in the US. And now they have bailed out the financial system by pumping even more money in the system. Excessive credit brought the crisis out and now the medicine is even more credit. 

Monday, August 25, 2014

Marc Faber: Africa will never be as successful as China


Africa has no chance to be the new China, not in a million years. You just have to look at how Chinese work, and their work ethics and the work ethics of black people. This is not a racist observation; it's a common sense observation. 

I love Africa. It's the most beautiful continent and the fact that people are easy-going is rather a plus than a negative. 

But I wouldn't want to live in Africa for security reasons. There's a lot of crime and theft and so forth, and number two, wealth that comes from resources usually – there are exceptions – usually does not lead to lasting wealth. 

And the upturn in Africa is largely from the resource price increase.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014