Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Investing in agriculture and commodities is not necessarily easy

We have to distinguish between commodities.Some commodities like copper, nickel, zinc, aluminium, steel depend on the economy of China to a large extent. On the other hand, gold is not an industrial commodity and it does not depend on the demand from China. It depends on investor sentiment towards gold and it depends on essentially central banks’ monetary policies. If they print money, then it is likely that gold will go up in the long run. In the short run, it does not have much of a correlation and that commodities are going to go up this year. Some have actually bottomed out. The agricultural commodities like soybeans, corn, wheat and coffee are attractive, but if you invest in these commodities, timing is very important because the rollover of futures in very expensive and if you buy an ETF, the rollover for futures every month is incredibly expensive. So, for an individual to play the commodity markets is not so simple, the best is probably to buy plantation stocks. 

Monday, May 27, 2019

China recession is overdue

"When I wrote Tomorrow’s Gold, geopolitical tensions were not as big a factor as they are today. At the time, China was not yet a dominant economy. Today, China is a dominant economy. In the larger scheme of things, China is still in the early stage of development."

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

The Neo-cons have antagonized both China and Russia

I think for the first time in Bretton Woods, we have less confidence or less faith in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. I think the U.S. policymakers, especially the Neo-cons, had the talent to antagonize Mr. Putin and also Mr. Xi in China.

By doing that, they have actually managed to get them closer into an economic and political alliance. And the goal of these two countries, Russian and China, is probably to gradually move away from a dollar system. I'll tell you, I personally, I'm not a U.S. citizen, I'm just an international observer of economic, financial, and political trends. I cannot imagine a foreign policy that would be worse for the U.S. itself than what the Neo-cons have engineered. I just can't imagine.