Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Recommendation to reduce equities position size.

"Concerning my negative views about equities I would like to add that an important technical signal has turned down badly: the Smart Money Flow Indicator (SMART Index), which is calculated according to a special formula.           
The broader point I want to make is that we can see an increasing number of signs and indicators that point to a major slowdown in the global economy and to disappointing corporate earnings. Therefore, I reiterate my previous recommendation that investors who are overweight equities should really reduce their heavy exposure. " 

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

China has FOUR times the population of USA and is a larger country


"I don't want to criticize the U.S., because in other countries it is not much better. But the one thing I want to say is the following: Americans have been growing up and they've been brainwashed that America is a superpower and they have been educated in the belief of the American exceptionalism. And I just want to say that lots of countries in this world have a different perspective of the world. In particular, if you look at China, it has four times the population of America. Its industrial production is larger than in the U.S., their land mass is larger than the U.S., and they're growing at a much faster pace. They have, in my opinion, no territorial ambitions, but they don't want to be controlled by the U.S. that has, in Asia, countless military and naval bases.

They (China) look at the world from their perspective, and the U.S. would do well to consider other leaders' perspectives, including Xi Jinping and Mr. Kim Jong-un, and Mr. Putin, of course. But if you only look at the world from your perspective, undoubtedly some trouble will arise. And what most Americans don't see, they have kind of a tunnel vision where the tunnel starts in America and looks at the whole world, whereas other countries, they have another view of the world than the U.S.

And I think it's very important, both economically and politically to consider the point of view of other countries that, by the way, have become very powerful."

Thursday, June 7, 2018

US rate hikes could cause a recession

"Well, a lot of industrial commodities have been rallying because of commodities-related circumstances, like aluminum rallies because of the trade embargo against Russia, and so forth. 

But if I look at industrial commodities, I rather have the feeling that they will come down. Why? I think the increase in interest rates in the U.S. on the 10-year treasury note from 1.38 percent in the summer of 2016 to the current level of over three percent, in other words, we more than doubled in the yield in the bond market. 

And for the two-year treasury, we have been going up between 10 and 20 times depending how you measure it.

I think these interest rate increases will slow down the U.S. economy, and probably bring about a recession."

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

US Dollar could rebound in the near term

"I think there has been, just recently, a huge short position in the dollar. In other words, speculators, 15 months ago, they were heavily long in the dollar, and now they are very heavily short dollar. I think the dollar may rebound and as a result, precious metals may not move up right away. I think, eventually, they'll move up, but for the next, say, one or two months, I don't see how precious metals would rally significantly."